In 1996, Adobe magazine published an article titled “Where is Publishing Headed?” in which the author, Rob French, opined that “The advent of the fast, cheap, global dissemination of digitized information has begun transforming any number of industries, but with the exception of telecommunications, none will face more pressure to change than publishing.” That was in 1996!
Fourteen years later, can anyone doubt that this is what has taken, is taking, place? Long running magazines of all sizes are shuttering their doors forever. Some attempt to hang on by offering a digital version of their magazine to subscribers, as if that will keep them reading. So far, no magazine has been saved by the addition of a digital version.
From magazines to newspapers, publishing is not so much going the way of the dinosaur as it is going the way of the caterpillar. It’s in the chrysalis stage now, and very soon, the entire publishing industry will be reborn anew. But, will it be a moth or a butterfly and how will it be monetized?
Based on the popularity of hand-held devices, such as the iPad and Smartphones, I predict we’ll see a rapid growth of online sources for every type of information, from recipes to breaking news, from scientific research to the Library of Congress. Even more than is available today. The new publishing industry will be entwined with our daily lives. Just as cell phones became commonplace, so will hand-held communications/entertainment/computing tools. These devices will be preinstalled in everything from bathrooms to refrigerators to cars. We may even be able to install them in ourselves. Who knows? The interfaces will be app-driven, as the iPad and Android operating systems now are, and will be dished up for a flat fee added on top of one’s cell phone bill. This is from where the publishing industry of the future will operate.
That’s not to say that paper and print will go away forever. I, for one, still prefer reflected media to projected media (must be my 51-year-old eyes) when it comes to reading. I don’t care to sit at the computer screen and read the WSJ when I can read it on my front porch. On the other hand, I’ve played with an iPad and I want one (badly!). It brings the world’s knowledge to my fingertips and I can tuck it under my arm, head off to Panera Bread or Starbucks and sit for hours reading and researching to my heart’s content. Can’t do that with a stack of newspapers or encyclopedias.
Then there are the young’ns (for me that’s anyone under 40). They seem to prefer receiving all of their information electronically these days. In fact, Americans have been slow to catch on to this trend. In Japan today, more books are read by cell phone then in print. So much so, the Japanese publishing industry is teaching their existing novelists how to write to the cell phone format in order to keep up with the demand. We’re looking at our future.
Publications, such as online magazines, will be like bus stations. Visitors will arrive by directed sources or by Google searches. While there, they will use the magazine as a launching platform for other destinations on the Web. While there, they also will be exposed to content and advertising, which will alter their thinking and affect their decision-making. Hard leads and impressions will be collected and sold to advertisers to keep revenue streaming in. Popular sites will be those that serve up the most useful or most interesting content to the most people. The numbers will tell the tale and advertises will respond.
This scenario is not yet fully in operation but it is happening. Too many today magazines are attempting to replace or supplement their print properties by simulating them online, which is a recipe for disaster. Online magazines have been around long enough for us to know that they’re not popular in their current form. Few people want to sit at a computer leafing through a digital version of a magazine when a print copy can be easily picked up and taken to the lunchroom. Even with the available links a digital magazine offers these things just aren’t popular enough to replace print.
A totally new business model will soon appear that will revolutionize the publishing industry. We’re at the threshold of a brave new world. At the moment, though, blogs are the biggest threat to print publications. Many Web sites have been taken down and restructured to fit the blog format. That’s how popular blogs have become, and with Google’s AdSense program, even moderately popular blogs can make money.
Eric Hoffer, author of “The True Believer: Thoughts On The Nature Of Mass Movements” wrote “In times of profound change, the learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists.” Publishing, as we once knew it, no longer exists. Like the caterpillar, it is evolving and will shortly reveal itself to the world as a beautiful butterfly. Those who believe will be ready to capitalize on the new model.
If you want to read the entire Rob French article go to http://192.150.14.31/products/adobemag/archive/pdfs/9605ferf.pdf. You have to hand it to Adobe. Fourteen years ago they foretold the future of publishing with remarkable accuracy.
Michael McBride
